Sooner or later the sp will explode towards 35c-40c before the result is released in March.
This is another NEU in the making.
The value in milestone payments can amount to more than $1bil based on the $230mil milestone payment deal from ADVANZ PHARMA which only cover 1/5 of the global market.
The juicier part is the 15%-20% royalties. That is massive recurring income for DXB each and every year and potentially earn USD $150mil (AUD $230mil) once the distribution partners reach USD $1bil global sales. It is MASSIVE income every single year for DXB. IF you earn $230mil per year, that deserves a MC of at least $2.3bil on a PE of 10. And that does not take into account milestone payments of potential more than $1bil for all distribution deals for all regions/territories.
I think this stock is massively mispriced and sp has to do multiples in the weeks ahead.
Phase 3 clinical has highest success rate compared to phase 1 and phase 2, at 60%-70%. If one applies a 60% success rate to the potential reward:
[$1bil milestone payments + ANNUALLY RECURRING income of USD $150mil (AUD $230mil)] × 0.60 (success rate) = MC? = My rough estimate of $2bil MC.
I am not saying MC should jump to $2bil next Monday but at current $70mil MC? hah? Even if it goes to 50c sp next week, MC would still be $210mil and would still be ridiculously undervalued IMO. I would be happy to take such a bet every single day.
If such a medical biotech company can only be valued at current EV of $50mil after burning around $100mil over 10 years-15 years to have go against an odd of 95% failure rate to be a luck few to move to this final stage 3 and has signed the 1st of 4 distribution deals worth a $billion in milestone payments and potential $150mil-$230mil annual royalties to be valued at a mere $50mil EV, then no company on ASX would bother to go into commercial medical research in the first place.
I think anyone who is willing to do a few number crunching about this stock and the sizes of its done deal and incoming distribution deals will easily spot the stunning opportunity of this mispriced stock.
Let's see how the days ahead go with my prediction of sp exploding to the upside. Traders will always do what traders do but they won't be able to stop this stock's sp upwards trajectory.
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