1Trader we know the arbitration is causing WPL problems....Coleman said so ages ago.
I have no doubt arbitration would be causing the JV huge problems including the government.
For starters love or hate WPL the JV needs a company of this size to get this to production.
If WPL get kicked out of the JV, financiers would be shitting themselves IMO.
Fact is if FAR win then we have 2 scenarios.
1. WPL/COP, whom ever cocked it up, will have to do a deal with FAR to make it go away....
I'd take free carry to first oil for 50% so $225 million minimum.
2. WPL walk and FAR on sell probably the 35% + CNE say 20% for a full freecarry to FAR....possibly/likely with cash as well.
Problem with this line is it will delay the project by 18 months at least IMO, although if FAR are as organised as they say they are it could happen sooner as the incoming entity would be looking at all the JV stuff via FAR atm I would guess.
I think the government would prefer option 1 but that entirely depends on what has gone down behind the scenes.
If FAR lose the JV will continue on and financiers will be happy to see stability and title certainty and the $$ will flow IMO.
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