I think >US$50M is definitely achievable Jan-June 2022 in repayment, which would take us to less than US$100M of debt... I also think less than US$100M debt could be a nice trigger point for a refinance, but I have been wrong in the past.
Until refinance is sorted, thus giving the company an avenue to use retained earnings for distribution or for acquisition, I do not think we will see a sustained lift in SP. However, given the current futures market for coal and the quick debt repayment currently anything could happen.
I retain 3x EBITDA multiple is not unreasonable for a miner, but this multiple needs to be a realistic price assumption, not the current A$25M/month EBITDA... But yes, A$450M market cap would not be unreasonable for a company with A$150M EBITDA (TER did A$126M EBITDA in last 6 months).
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I think >US$50M is definitely achievable Jan-June 2022 in...
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