Ann: FY2021 Investor Presentation, page-28

The export situation is really interesting. The spike to $16/KG in China is temporary due to import restrictions, and who knows who long this will last? Fishpool came out with their figures this week, and it hasn't shown any spike in prices. The reason I believe is because it's a lot of substitution from Chile or Norway towards Australia - so Australia is getting higher prices, while Chile is probably flat as US opening up, and Europeans are experiencing lower prices. Long term though, global supply is being exceeded by global demand, so future markets holding up really well. The Salmonbusiness.com article sort of notes this: https://salmonbusiness.com/chinese-import-restrictions-hit-salmon-prices/



Air freight however is still the major challenge with exports, and will no doubt be this way until at least early 2022 if not mid 2022. Currently they are paying on average $1.70/kg additional air freight costs to go to China (not sure what total costs are), and around $2.30/kg additional air freight costs for other destinations such as Korea or Japan.

The taps can be turned on/off at any time. TGR management need to just be opportunistic, and export as much as they can at these prices. The spike in China is temporary, and really just offsets the additional air freight costs. If I read between the lines on what Andrew Creswell (CFO) said, I think they had 7000t in the freezers as of 30 June 2021; after six weeks of record exports they were down to around 5200t (1800t additional net exports in six weeks is pretty good!); and they want to get their inventory down to around 2000t of salmon in the freezers (working capital, can export if spot prices spike, etc).

Share price has held up well since the report. Being profitable and cash flow positive - albeit only marginally - is clearly not what the shorts had expected. The report was 'meh' because it missed a trick with exporting in March-June, but the sugar rush to the bottom line via unwinding of the inventory is still there for 1H22. Hopefully that'll shake off the cobwebs.