I said previously I’d sell if the post-tax NPV was below $600M. Luckily I logged-on when the DFS was released. It’s disgusting this news was released during open like this.
I’ll be listening to the webcast this Friday, but my trust is gone. ADN must have known the figures would be bad, yet they kept up the roadshow, with IMHO, JM being optimistic and upbeat about the future for shareholders. There were so many little ‘wink-wink’ management hints along the way, from the believable, to the ridiculous, like the chart with the hand drawn SP line, to the ones I'm no longer sure about, like the seemingly large discrepancies between the DFS prices versus those alluded to in presentations.
None of this makes sense. Why pretend everything is rosy, when sooner or later the DFS must be released? It’s like buying short-term popularity, at a future price of shattered credibility. That’s why I trusted management. It just seemed (and still seems) illogical to pump this stock unless they genuinely believed ADN was undervalued.
A lot of things were beyond the company’s control, like the cost blow-outs, and the take-over delays. But knowing this, IMHO, they should not have engaged in the roadshow. The continuous optimistic presentations are the reason I kept holding. Because, like I said, why would management pump a dud when reality would be revealed shortly?
There are many ghouls here gloating over others’ losses, shouting “I told you so.” No one should take advice from anonymous posters. So I don’t know what they expect. They offered no new insights, and the fact they were right reflects luck more than wisdom. I’d say many are malignant narcissists with a messiah complex who think their shallow calls should be followed, and anyone that didn't is fair game for ridicule.
Hindsight is great. Looking back, it’s too easy to fit a retrospective narrative to the outcome. Yes, there were warning signs. But there are warning signs for every single company. If you look for certainty, be prepared to accept fixed-term deposit returns.
I won’t apologise for debating hard in support of my beliefs. Particularly with those who clearly didn’t disclose their interests. No rational person would follow and contribute to a stock discussion without an interest. I have nothing but distain for posters who refuse to disclose their interests.
I will still follow ADN, but it’s unlikely I’ll invest in it again. More than anything, I hope for the sake of our planet that the CC plant is real, and that the $20 per tonne wasn’t BS. I’d be happy to have supported ADN in my own small way, if that turns out to be true.
This will be my last post. I am only posting, because, as a supporter, I think it’s right that I admit I called this wrong. Good luck, and I mean that genuinely.
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