Interesting times.
LPE has certainly been through the wringer of late
Three board members have resigned, one of which was a principle founder and substantial share holder. Now followed by the company secretary. We still don't know what caused this complete reshuffle, what mistakes have been made and how they leveraged the new Chairman and others into the hot seats.
With only one original in place, we await with baited breath to see if the changes are a net positive.
Progressive down grades on revenue guidance, from $80m to 55-65m, quickly followed by withdrawing all guidance on account of the Covid19 pandemic disruption. Leaves little doubt there are problems ahead.
On the plus side
LPE are a utility, normally a safe haven in uncertain times as demand remains consistent, it is a core need that cannot be opted out of in a modern world.
70% of revenue comes from strata level customers, which should be very stable revenue
30% are SME and direct customers, direct should be stable, but the SME mix is unknown and can expect a down turn if business related.
First half revenue of $19.7m is normally around 30% of annual, putting LPE on track for $65m annual. Obviously that is now optimistic. But even taking the 27600 customers LPE had in the half yearly and holding there, consumption should be ~$31m for the half year coming.
As the $31m is a higher consumption half year, the annual would be ~$60m, that is the no growth figure which would also mean LPE have no sales staff. So its fair to expect some customer growth, even in tough times, as I am sure LPE will keep a sales team appropriately sized to the success they can achieve.
SME may prove to be a weak point, as consumption by business will normally drop in a recession, which makes it quite likely the predicted $31m will drop some.Bear in mind SME although high revenue per customer is also lower margin, so will not effect gross profit to the same extent as a reduction in strata or residential direct consumption. On balance I would not expect the down turn in SME consumption to outweigh growth in other customers.
All in all there are risks around the unknowns at board level, but the revenue is pretty safe as its largely strata and residential customer backed.
This quote from the 6 monthly report is also reassuring in these times, to have a safe fall back position would be the envy of many of today's stocks. LPE have favoured, growth over cash flow positive to date, in these times it is good to have an option cut back, and run on their own cash flow.
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