You're spot on YesDavid. I took a quick look at their numbers:
DFS:
NPV: 479M
Opex: A$302/t
Price: US$550/t
Exchange: 68 cents
Now:
Opex: 390 (up 29.1%)
Price: 500 (down -9.1%)
Exchange (say): 75 (up 10.3%)
So, using their own DFs sensitivity analysis:
Impact on NPV:
Opex: A$39M for every 10% change - A$117M in total
Price: A$117M for a 10% drop in price
Exchange: A$98M for a 10% increase
Total negative impact: A$332M
NPV was A$479M
Less A$332M
New NPV: A$147M
I have not considered an increase in Capex (because who knows what that is?) and the delay in first production (now at least 6 months) which will hammer the Project's NPV and IRR.
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