XRO 2.93% $138.18 xero limited

@Charlie346 Cashburn is half-yearly (total cash 138 to 114)= 24m...

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    @Charlie346

    Cashburn is half-yearly (total cash 138 to 114)= 24m
    They have changed the way they capitalise R&D so I use this figure...This is a major half on half improvement though from ~45m the previous 2 halves.

    I have used a few different models...here is the output of one below. I have normalised PEs with various assumptions based off the underling GM. All US stocks bar xero. All numbers are trailing.


    Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6 Column 7 Column 8 Column 9 Column 10 Column 11
    1 YEAR 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
    2 S&P PS 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.8 1.8 2
    3 CRM PS 11.8 4 7.5 11.4 6.6 8.2 8.7 7.2 8.1 6
    4 CRM GM 76.1 77.1 79.5 80.2 80.5 78.4 77.6 76.2 76 75.2
    5 CRM growth 50.61 43.82 21.25 26.93 36.77 34.58 33.47 32 24.07  
    6 CRM "PE" 38.76 12.97 23.58 35.54 20.50 26.15 28.03 23.62 26.64 19.95
    7 CRM "PEG" 0.256277 0.538222 1.67229 0.761118 0.711122 0.810536 0.705768 0.832648 0.8287  
    8                      
    9 XRO PS             107.5 29.1 19.5 12.4
    10 XRO GM               65 69.8 75.9
    11 XRO growth             109.94 84.78 53.56  
    12 XRO PE               111.92 69.84 40.84
    13 XRO PEG             1.018038 0.823808 0.762569  
    14                      
    15 WKDAY PS         38.5 34.6 20.9 14.1 8.9  
    16 GM           51.37 57.42 62.3 66.39 67.79
    17 growth             103.57 71.36 68.01 47.53
    18 PE             150.64 83.87 53.10 32.82
    19 PEG             1.454517 1.175286 0.780699 0.690552
    20                      
    21 ZEN PS               16.4 11.6 6.8
    22 GM           65.3 66 63.8 67.8 69.9
    23 growth             88.46 76.35 64.32 49.45
    24 PE               64.26 42.77 24.32
    25 PEG               0.841694 0.665001 0.491819
    26                      
    27 NOW PS           9.1 19.7 15.9 14.4 9.4
    28 GM       62.6 65.9 57.3 63.4 63.6 67.2 71.3
    29 growth         113.81 90.01 74.24 60.74 47.31 38.29
    30 PE           39.70 77.68 62.50 53.57 32.96
    31 PEG           0.441099 1.046355 1.028976 1.132349 0.860782
    The output when I was still adding was something like (forward)

    Column 1
    1 {colgroup}
    2 {col=64x@}{/col}
    3 {/colgroup}
    4 7.299270073
    5 78
    6 40
    7 23.40
    8 0.58487

    Right now trailing is:

    Column 1
    1 {colgroup}
    2 {col=64x@}{/col}
    3 {/colgroup}
    4 10.16949153
    5 78
    6 40
    7 32.59
    8 0.814863[/FONT][/SIZE]
    Column 1
    And forward is:
    Column 1
    1 {colgroup}
    2 {col=64x@}{/col}
    3 {/colgroup}
    4 7.532956685
    5 78
    6 40
    7 24.14
    8 0.603602[/FONT][/SIZE]
    Anyway as you know modelling depends a lot on the inputs which are pretty hard to get right.
    My main comparator (what I hope Xero can achieve) is CRM.
    If you go back through my posting history you will find lots of posts with the rest of the investment case for Xero
    Last edited by hankreardon: 12/05/17
 
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