again u miss the point.it’s not if the end user wants to...

again u miss the point.
it’s not if the end user wants to diversify and mitigate their supply chain risk. of course they would. but at what price? if it’s significantly dearer , they’ll find another way.
it’s whether the lender assessing a $100M deal feels comfortable in an opaque market with supply coming back on from (what was) the largest supplier again, regardless as to how it starts. It’s how it ends is what’s important. And over what time.
the lenders money is exposed over a period of time. if they feel Ukraine can crank back up relatively easily? they’ll weight this risk.
and they won’t weight it the way u are. that’s stupid and viewed through the wrong lense.
they’ll look at this and see if their $100M is better placed elsewhere with less risk.
it’s as simple as that.