TNY is doing many things very well and I admire how they've gone about it — especially with their recent heavy focus on content marketing to improve SEO to get customers for free. OTOH, it'll be a challenge — the competition for SEO for families with young kids is fierce!.
The key issue is whether TNY deserves anywhere close to its current valuation of $41M — at it's low price today. Their market is families with very young kids. People move in and out of that segment very quickly as kids become toddlers, then start school, etc. It would be interesting to learn their churn rates over the course of a couple of years. If it's high (I suspect it is), then they'll have a never-ending challenge of finding new users, so they'll NEED to get them for free.
More likely, and probably in addition, they'll need to expand their product offering to continue to be of value to families as their kids age. That's a wild card. I'll be interested in seeing what they can do. But right now, in the absence of of that wild card, I see them as a nice lifestyle business capable of generating modest profits — enough to provide a great salary to the founders and senior team, but not a public company with huge growth potential.
TNY Price at posting:
90.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
