ADN 13.3% 1.7¢ andromeda metals limited

Clearly they don't have sufficient binding offtakes in place to...

  1. 5,663 Posts.
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    Clearly they don't have sufficient binding offtakes in place to proceed with the project at the scale of stage one of the DFS.

    Did James mention that the board had considered updated modelling before deciding on changing to a scalable 100ktpa ore "starter plant"? Do you think shareholders might like to know the figures from that modelling?

    I believe JMs words were that the starter plant is a "refinement of the DFS rather than a substantial departure from it". He also said "The DFS figures remain our goal". So the operation outlined in the DFS is aspirational. What is being said here between the lines is they don't have sufficient BOAs to proceed with the project a the scale of the DFS.

    Summary:

    - The board have decided to scale back the project. They decided to bury that market sensitive info in a bullshit announcement marked non-price sensitive.
    - They have not provided any info around the modelling of the economics of the revised project; ie, a 100ktpa ore processing starter plant.
    - There is no technical info provided as to how this starter plant can and will be scaled up to the size of train one under stage one of the DFS. It's just stated as fact.
    - Absolutely no figures are provided around revised capex, opex, margins of this starter plant for its initial commissioning and for the further ramp up in capacity.

    Shareholders who want to remain invested in the project because, hey they are on the path to production, well good luck to you. It's one thing to remain invested on the hope that it all turns out OK in the end. For me, I can't see how there is any investment case that supports the current market cap of $187M. Fingers crossed this project makes it into production, survives and maybe one day down the track breaks even and with some luck turns a profit. There is nothing de-risked about this project at all.

    Previously, I bought back into this stock on the basis that a market cap of about 50% of the NPV of the DFS, with all the upside potential for product development and on the assumption that the BOAs would come in to support the business case in the DFS was a reasonable risk/reward proposition prior to a final investment decision and the securing of finance.

    More fundamental than the above, there is nothing that justifies the way in which the board of directors and management have handled the release of the revised project plan to market. Nothing.

    The webinar today only reinforced what has been discussed on this board since the announcement of Friday.

 
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