I have exchanged one or two posts with
@Davyboy on the PPSA in the past. Same conclusion I reached then and decided to give it a rest. No disrepect intended though. He is an objective contributor. Anyone of us can be sincerely wrong. Only time tells who is.
How can you possibly claim that IVZ can chose NOT to sign the PPSA because they have the PEDPA? As far as this project is concerned, not one BOE will be sold on the PEDPA and even if it was sold there's no way of determining your cut. I can almost guarantee that. If you haven't realised the PPSA is the ZIM govt joker at this stage, you need to wake up. The PEDPA is not a substitute for the PSA. It is a component of the PSA. Contrary to your position, IVZ is not better off without the PPSA. They need the PPSA to finalise their paperwork for this project. The project can be advanced to production phase without it which I believe was what SM meant that may have been taken out of context. Unfortunately, it appears potential farmees won't touch it until the documents are in hand.
PEDPA - Details the fiscal and non-fiscal incentives over the life of the project (Special Economic Zone status - zero CGT, tax holiday periods, 15% corporate tax, rights & obligations etc). Essentially, provides framework for progression through the phases of the project.
PPSA - Details the Profit/Production sharing
PSA = PEDPA + PPSA
The zero CGT, tax holiday periods, 15% corporate tax provisions apply to IVZ's share of profit/production which is yet to be determined because the PPSA has not been finalised. Rumour is that govt is targeting up to 60% if video that surfaced a year or two ago was anything to go by.
This remains my position on the PPSA and anyone is free to disagree.
On sovereign risk, arguments about the SWF and pension funds being invested are also myopic in my opinion. They will buy up your stake for pittance after frustrating you out of the project. Assets change hands all the time from "investors" to "investors". A good relationship with the powers that be is non-negotiable. If they decide to take Cabora Bassa Project to production with another investor, it is not impossible. They only need to put IVZ in a difficult position to progress the project especially considering the funding constraints - an issue we can rightly blame the govt for now. IVZ will definitely make money off it still but not at full potential.
PLEASE NOTE that I'm not suggesting this will eventuate here. In fact, I don't believe that is the govt's end game but the risk is alive and there. I'm just amused by posters with blinkers on that see no risks at all and think everything is guaranteed.
That said, I don't see any reason why IVZ is not a buy at this level with a flow test coming up sometime this year. SP will follow same cycle every other exploratory stock SP follows in my opinion. Where it will peak is what I have no idea of but there's money to made imo. Barring any negatives, the future is bright for sure. The risk is worth it but don't assume the future is assured. All in my opinion.
