PAR 0.00% 29.0¢ paradigm biopharmaceuticals limited..

Ann: iPPS SIGNIFICANT OA PAIN REDUCTION AT 12 MONTHS, page-163

  1. 553 Posts.
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    Yes Cabe, I think the issues have not changed. The announcement showed that the "science" works, from that perspective it was very positive, but now that the initial enthusiasm from the announcement settles, we are back to what bothered us (some) 2 weeks ago.

    I think the obsession with big end of town or insto's is mis-placed. This is just too small of a market cap for an institutional fund to care about shorting or depressing the shareprice, most institutional funds cannot short. Imagine being a $1bn fund and only being able to short 500,000 shares at 74c, that is only circa .3 of a basis point of your aum. Now, it could be a very small Hedge Fund, who is playing sillybuggers, but again, think of it as how much could this short player make in P&L, they can only make $370,000 if the stock goes to zero, so who is that amount of profit meaningful enough to?

    As for a raise, I have said it many times before, they need one, but hopefully not the same way as previous, as it would seem their bankers just place it to generalist investors, not dedicated healthcare players or strategic players in the space. Yes it is awesome to have Allianz, but they do not carry a fan base that follows them into names (no halo effect). If they are paying large fees to Bell Potter and Edison, you would hope they are lining your shareholder base with people who can invest through an entire cycle, give advice etc.

    No idea about suppression of the stock for a takeover, actually I discount that. The market cap is just a drop in the ocean for any large pharma, I do not think they would have an active program to borrow shares, sell them short and hope they can buy the entire company at X. Easier way would be to have had a look at data room, see that the company needs cash, make an offer (eg: we will give you A$100m of working capital for your remaining OA trials, for a 20% stake, 2 board seats and whatever else etc etc) and then they are working from the inside, not outside.

    As for a deal with a heavy hitter, I truly hope they can. They keep telling us that Plexus is the bees knees, but that is now long in the tooth. Plexus is ex China and the focus on the call from PR the other day was all China.

    I got a bit longwinded, but I hope I got to your points.

 
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