mcjf, I agree with a lot of what you say.
I also believe Axiom will be the first to mine .... but when ?? ... your guess is as good as anyone.
I would however like to throw in a viewpoint for debate ....
Sumitomo is gone for now.... however I still firmly believe they would like to get the Nickel.
Their legal team and experts would have thrown every scenario into the ring before deciding to withdraw (for now).
Would it be possible that Sumitomo will return later (once licences are granted) and make a hostile takeover for Axiom ???