BCN 0.00% 2.4¢ beacon minerals limited

I can't give you financial advice. My average price is much...

  1. 85 Posts.
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    I can't give you financial advice. My average price is much lower than the price today so my views probably reflect that. If you calculated the NPV of the cashflows from all the gold that is to be sold over the next 3-4 years (and you make assumptions that are more conservative than the PFS for the costs and the discount rate, which was really small in the PFS at around 2.25% from memory) and you assume that the gold price is somewhat stable at todays price, you'll get an NPV around $110 m.

    You can play around with it in Excel with even a simple model (most people would be more sophisticated than this). On 23 September they announced that they have a reserve of 118,600 oz. Let's just assume it's 120,000 oz for a round number. Assume they mine and sell 30,000 ozs each year for the next 4 years at a gold price that's a little weaker than today ($2500 and assume that stays stable over 4 years). And assume the total costs per year is $1400 per oz which is probably higher than what it actually is. Finally go with a reasonable discount rate of 8% and you get an NPV of $109m (todays closing market cap). So you could argue that it's maybe undervalued because I've been conservative with my assumptions. I've always felt that over the past year or so, the market has priced Beacon pretty reasonably and I haven't lost any sleep over it.

    From reading the forum from time to time, it seems people are shocked that this isn't much higher. It should go much higher if we find more gold, and I'm reasonably sure we will, but people have gotten a little carried away on this forum at times. Carried away to the point of claiming various conspiracy theories relating to the board and shadowy figures that are working to keep the share price down. I don't really get it to be honest.

    I would just say that the drilling results that potentially will show that we have a larger reserve is what will send the share price up (not necessarily the declaration of dividends). I'm unaware of guidance from the Board regarding when a dividend will be paid.
 
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