Just to be clear, the BRK pre dill estimate of the high side production was 1500 BEOPD made up of oil and raw gas at the well head where the NGL's aren't separated as yet.
View attachment 3689744All the above flows are oil and raw gas well head production numbers, and the Jewell is at 1491 BOEPD , 973 oil and 518 BOEPD raw gas by my calculations.
That is why the announcement says " reaches Pre-drill High Side Estimate" , and doesn't say " exceeds High side estimate".
But the flow is till increasing and should exceed the high rate.
BRK have used the FLASH well as an example of a geographically approximate and analogous well to BRK, so lets compare the wells.
Just by example, if the Flash rate of 1978 BOEPD flow was identical in characteristics to the Jewell, then Flash's numbers would be1978/1491 x973 =1291 barrels a day oil and 687 BOEPD raw gas
The 687 BEOPD gas flow is equivalent to 4.122 MMCFGPD which then applying the Jewell metrics, would give an NGL flow of 577 BNGLPD and and NGL extracted gas flow of 2,473 MMCFGPD
or or 412.2 BOEPD gas, giving a total of ~2280 BOEPD.
So Jewell Oil ( 973 BPD) NGL (440 BPD) Gas 1.886MMCFGPD or 314 (BOEPD) =1727 BOEPD
Flash (1291 BPD) (577 BPD) 2.473MMCFGPF or 412 ( BOEPD)= 2280 BOEPD
That is our target to beat!... another 553 BOEPD to go.
C'mon BRK
.
What is happening at the well head and the implications of cannot be overstated in terms of value creation. The eventual IP number will be a better than expected high point to start from. If the well decline, which will become apparent at the IP30/90 milestones is less than modelled, then that combination will result in a material increase in cash flow, and more importantly reserves/ value per acre which will positively impact the return on any monetisation event.
Even if the decline is as modelled, then there still will a material positive effect on cashflow and reserves/ value. Only a steeper than modelled decline rate may detract from the eventual outcome.
Another incredible day to be a Brookie, despite the lack luster share price response. Without a doubt, this muted market response to what literally are company making outcomes can be deflating, but the operational significant outperformance is THE measure of success.
Cheers
Dan
(20min delay)