Holders going to hate contrarian views, inevitably discrediting a 'downramper' usually starts with questioning motive. Even one of your two posts wasn't the first to quote Sprott's MRE update report, I've become suspicious of those asking nicely what my motive is. Apologies, but experience tells me your question, repetitive, is more about focusing readers on questioning my ulterior motives than sincere interest. What twisted XXXX spends time analysing and posting negative views in a bull market on a stock they don't own right?
Defending myself against ideology, ignorance and fear is a Sisyphean task, not that I'm even allowed to try as last week proved. Motives shouldn't matter, just content, if my opinions are rubbish no harm done regardless. Any answer or justification on motive is going to look trite or false inviting more ridicule. Holders have to believe I'm all lies driven by sinister motives, or cognitive dissonance becomes damn uncomfortable (money on the line, market says it's a winner, but credible arguments say it's not =
). So perhaps you pick one instead; I want a cheap entry, short seller, axe to grind with management, working for competitor, softening price for potential acquisition... whatever makes you comfortable lol.
Anyone seen me around (15 years btw) knows I don;t like backing down to bullies, don't mind a fight, and like to be right. So when a conga line of thread bouncers start into me about how little I know (to put it politely) and tainted my motives are from the first post (which said "Very interesting project this one, got a good chance long term but also plenty of risks") my interest is peaked. When good analysis is continually gaslighted with more ridicule and abuse, I become very interested in being right. Really, how embarrassing banging on about an opinion but being wrong (not that it bothers many on HC).
Fortunately, I'm blessed with free time and interested in mineral sand projects/industry. Lazy, usually only interested enough for a cursory review, but motivated by encouragement on this thread I'm really enjoying getting my teeth into this unique min sand project. What's not to like about Kasiya; fascinating geology and mineralisation distribution, processing multiple types of insitu, high clay ore, enigmatic economic potential, situated in fertile plains of central Africa. SVM has all the data and a good handle on risks and range of likely outcomes, not withstanding met work and mine studies outstanding. Much more fun imo working out a puzzle early while lots of pieces are missing... surprising what some sleuthing with Google, bit of logic and more knowledge than most can come up with.
I value projects from the bottom up, but value stocks from the top down. What is the company likely to be worth in 3-5 years time if they finally get funded based on industry peers, then discount back for time and risk. Examples like:
SFX sold ~50% of fully permitted Thunderbird deposit for A$65M (cash equity basis) ~$100M spent and a DFS with ~A$1B post-tax NPV8%
STA sold ~50% of fully permitted Coburn deposit for A$60M (cash equity basis) ~$100M spent and a DFS with ~A$700M pre-tax NPV8%
WTR sold 100% of partially permitted Tolliara deposit for A$125M based on scoping study, ultimately for DFS with ~A$1B pre-tax NPV8%
ILU bought 100% of SR for A$450, SR being a profitable operating concern with ~A$400M of capex in place (replacement value) and so one could argue the project resource value was ~$125M (which doesn;t look that cheap any more).
Obviously WTR, SR and SFX deals were done in bear markets and sold down for funding etc, but valued 100% permitted in ground resources at ~A$125M none the less. STA was recently funded in bull market, still remarkable, but also valuing 100% of permitted Coburn project ~A$120M, similar A$130M as Thunderbird JV sale. I won't insult readers suggesting SVM is going to be worth $125M EV in 3-5 years time, every project is different and who knows what the market conditions or project's potential will look like then?
If you don't mind, I won't nail up a valuation range until I finish my DD and decide if the sausage matches the sizzle. Good luck.
(20min delay)
