After many long-winded but hopefully somewhat helpful posts over the years, I have refrained from saying much on HC these past months in suspension, preferring to let due process run its course. However, feel the time is right to break silence to counter much of the uneducated/unresearched jibberish being written of late, as well opine on a few legal matters in an attempt to summarise the current state of play as I see it.
Following the arrest of the CEO & TD of Cominere (criminal charges laid & that's a FACT) and thanks largely to the work of the Civil Society / powerful Non-Government Organisations (NGOs) & the General Inspectorate of Finance (IGF), it is both pleasing & immensely gratifying to see AVZ also 'going on the offense' and taking Dathomir to task with a BIG legal stick. In this regard, Nigel has remained true to his word, after alluding to possible retaliation & recourse months ago.
The timing (albeit incredibly frustrating for shareholders to have to endure the long wait in suspension) appears to be right from a strategic & geopolitical perspective. The fact that IGF & NGOs are also going for the jugular is also extremely good timing, helpful & welcome. Let's hope it's maximum warp from here on to finally 'unblock the blockers' from this vitally important project moving forward.
Though dressed in camouflage green, the above graphic (interpretation) includes & depicts the Minister of Portfolio potentially being trampled on by the IGF, NGOs and an overhauled judicial system (due to the immediate request of Tshisikedi after he rose to power) which is now in place and aims to protect the state, as opposed to high-ranking individuals, as has been the case in the past. Gertler, Kabilas, Cong anyone?
Despite this change at the top, Princess Adele Kayinda remains defiant & has the gall to assert that;
a) AVZ/Dathcom has no mining expertise so that is why she brought Zijin to the table (cough cough).
This is despite an independent DRC technical committee having meticulously reviewed otherwise, and who signed off in favour of AVZ prior to the Minister of Mining's decree. The Princess also conveniently failed to mention AVZ's BOD years of mining experience + CATH partner expertise (IMO because of her obvious allegiance with Zijin & MMCS) and besides that she knows bugger all about Lithium and Australian mining expertise / know-how IMO.
b) AVZ/Dathcom don't have the required funding to construct the project.
And yet the reality is that AVZ already have the required equity plus an equity commitment from CATH. In addition, AVZ's debt requirement has been provisionally guaranteed (upon awarding the ML) by a consortium of African Development Banks. I mean, who wouldn't fund this incredible project (post ML) given the likely stellar economics and ultra-low pay-back period?
c) Any sale in Dathcom to a technical partner or otherwise to support the funding and development of Manono should attract a tax or government transactional costs.
Who the hell is she kidding?? Ungrateful piece of 'entitled' work she is IMO. Any sale of Dathcom to CATH is to help fund the development and construction of Manono, as explained below.
To repeat, the purpose of the sale is not for profit or dividends, but to help bring this project to fruition for the betterment of the Congolese state and its people.
Therefore, IMO it is because the Princess and other well connected detractors have caused so much damage (with the above falsities) to the detriment of the Congolese state and its citizens via her obvious allegiances with Cominiere, Zijin & Cong, that she really has nowhere to hide now IMO, albeit she continues to defend herself by spreading dangerous & shameful rhetoric (in a last-ditch effort to deflect some very sticky mud being thrown at her by IGF, NGOs etc.) by spruiking complete misinformation (lies) to her supporters & allegiances within in the media and government.
It's been stated before that both Jin Cheng's (Zijin) arbitration, AVZ's pre-emptive right to a further 15% dispute with Cominiere and also Dathomir's fallacious claims would have no impact on the granting of an ML to Dathcom. I tend to agree.
Of course, other detractors including the DG of CAMI might not. However, in lieu of recent IGF findings & criminal charges laid against both CEO/DG & TD of Cominiere, and now witnessing AVZ using ICC to go after his 'friends in high places', I'd opine that Jean Felix Mupande (JFM) would be sensing the CAMI office walls finally starting to shake around him. And hopefully he is feeling more pressure than ever before to either run for cover (fast exit /exile) OR finally comply with the Minister Of Mining's 8-month-old decree to award Dathcom a Mining Licence for PR13359.
After all, there are documents that prove Dathcom took CAMI to the Kalemie courts due to lengthy delays and CAMI’s only excuse was that they were busy calculating the surface rights fees that Dathcom are only too happy to pay. And because Civil Society activist & journalist Frank Fwamba could or would not ask the obvious question, I’ve relayed the question myself to JFM direct (note: he has replied to another question I raised in the past, so let's see if he replies).
Failing any response over the next few days, will forward to the Prime Minister himself and also the President of the Senate, copying in the President of the Republic, Marius Mihigo (refer to his tweet at bottom of this post), the Inspector General of Finance, the Minister for Mines and Governor of Tanganyika, as to why Dathcom has STILL not been issued surface rights after all this time?
Perhaps the prospect of JFM being stood down after 17 long years in the job and being physically removed from CAMI once and for all (my preference) might be enough to persuade him to 'comply' this time around?
Having said that, IMO it might already be too late for JFM given his checkered history in the job and given the recent criminal charges against key Cominiere personnel, and his part in vehemently defying the State by obtrusively denying or delaying millions in future income for the Congolese people. On that front we shall see.
In the meantime, the below scenario (have been alluding to this for months and also provided by management at recent presentations), presents as a workable short-term solution for AVZ/Dathcom IMO.
AVZ rightly assumes its 75% ownership but covers itself in any event i.e. prior to any > 9% sale of Dathcom to CATH.
IMO this temporary solution whereby AVZ retains a majority interest come rain, hail or shine, represents a WIN WIN WIN for the Congolese, CATH & AVZ/Dathcom stakeholders.
But where would the remaining US$150m shortfall (24% less 9%) come from, one might ask?
The simple answer is via CATH agreeing to either OT pre-payment (advanced payment) or via a short -term debt facility that they provide to Dathcom until legal proceedings can be finalised. It's a little more commitment on their behalf but remember it's the product that they are screaming out for, as opposed to concerns over direct ownership.
With a Mining Licence awarded to Dathcom near term,
1. AVZ/Dathcom can sign off on both FID and provisional African development debt funding, & then enter the long-awaited construction phase post-haste.
2. CATH/L (supporting AVZ/Dathcom all the way & desperate for Lithium) can FINALLY plan to feed MUCH NEEDED SC6 best quality into their new & hungry converters, both in China and potentially in Europe &/or the DRC via other JV arrangements with Dathcom.
3. The Congolese could FINALLY forward plan with some certainty and begin to realise the substantial economic benefits & prosperity that a PPP/SEZ with Dathcom can deliver. I suspect that President Tshisikedi would LOVE & NEED to be able to spruik such a ‘plan in action’ come next year (2023 election year), and the fact that Manono is also at the heart of the DRC government's battery minerals value creation strategy.
The path for the DRC would be set....... Job creation followed by new & improved infrastructure, followed by direct & indirect revenue streams, followed by vast social improvements (education, quality of living & health etc), followed by substantial taxable income generation for the State.
Time for relevant stakeholders to PUSH HARD for this outcome IMO and remove aforementioned detractors / obstacles once and for all.
GLTA,
Cheers
Elpha
p.s. below tweet 7 weeks ago, must be closer than close, but suspect it may take a little longer than the 15th of Dec.
AVZ Price at posting:
78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)