BAL 0.00% $13.23 bellamy's australia limited

Ann: Market Update, page-80

  1. 5,850 Posts.
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    I think you were looking into the future at 2HY 2016 results when predicting $25M NPAT for 1HY 2016.

    The highlight of this update is the huge increase in margin compared to the 2 previous HYs. This is when only 1 month out of 6 reflected the product price increase.

    1HY 2015 = 7.57%
    2HY 2015 = 11.75%
    1HY 2016 = 18.10%

    Margins for 2HY2016 will surely be at a minimum 25+%. They are also expecting revenue in 2HY 2016 to be stronger than 1HY2016.

    It's realistic that EBIT for 2HY2016 could be $150M. That would mean EBIT of $37.5M at 25% margin. Even that is being on the conservative side - i.e. assuming only 50% revenue growth on 1HY2016.

    FY 2016 EDIT of $56.5M (19 + 37.5) or NPAT of $40M. At $12.80, that's a P/E of ~31.

    That's still a "buy" for a company that has just reported a 430% increase for EBIT on the PCP (prior corresponding period - i.e. 1FY2015).
 
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