I don't see TGA in its current form as sustainable - I want out.
Mulling my options to sell at a realistic price I considered: RISK LIQUIDITY TIMEFRAME WHAT I HAVE CONTROL OVER
For me holding onto the Warehouse Trust and receivables holds too much risk. Running costs eg salaries ( $6.8M p.a. ) + admin costs ( $4.4M p.a. ) are too high compared to value of assets ( $51.0M ). From Appendix 4C June 2023, staff costs= $1.721M, admin & Corporate costs= $1.090M both per quarter. From FY23 Annual Report p19 Net assets of TGA = $50.973M.
To vote against the transaction and HOPE Directors move to orderly runoff of receivables is SPECULATIVE. Its starting point is nta = $1.46 and at least 3 years to runoff receivables. Currently (31/3/2023) credit loss provisions are 10.5% of Gross receivables ( Gross receivables $158.0M less impairment $16.6M ) compared to historical 6% credit loss provisions ( see Grant Thornton previous report re previous takeover attempt ) . The 6% is average of good and bad economic times. Receivables are also a PRESENT VALUE calculated by discounting the minimum lease payments due, at the interest rate implicit in the lease. Yes in good times running down the receivables will throw off more cash than the $1.46 implies. However in an economic slowdown / recession credit loss provisions may be well above 10.5% . Further Running costs p.a. ( 6.8 + 4.4 ) are over 20% of nta ( you would hope these are lower in a runoff ). For 3 years to run down the book , running costs could be up to 60% of $1.46. RISK = uncertainty on provisions + heavy costs in running down the book = money received may be significantly less than $1.46 implies. TIMEFRAME = $1 in 3 years time is worth less than a $1 in 6 months.
In my previous post I gave a SPECULATIVE option of getting close to $1.71 ( 1.71 less windup costs ) plus franking credits at least 8.1c but maybe 30.4c. ie Vote FOR the transaction and a forced or voluntary liquidation of TGA occurs within 6 months. The starting point is $1.71 and most of it in cash = more certainty on proceeds.
I have LIMITED CONTROL over either FD / TH speculative scenario or my speculative scenario other than lobbying ASX and Directors.
LIQUIDITY Cash + ASX listed shares = liquid can be fully cash within 1 week. Runoff of receivables = looking at least 3 years to be fully cash.
In summary I voted FOR the transaction , REDUCES RISK, INCREASES CERTAINTY OVER THE PAYOUT AMOUNT , INCREASES LIQUIDITY and in an economic slowdown / recession HIGHER PAYOUT FOR A SMALL SHAREHOLDER WANTING TO SELL.
The above is not advice, other people's risk levels and circumstances may differ to me.
Thanks for your comments TruthHunter, friendlydwarves and Twinwins.
