Hi
@Daning
A mutual friend mentioned it might be nice to drop by for a visit.
Happy to see things progressing still, but i think it would pay for holders to lower expectations a touch so that the opportunity to profit accordingly is not missed. Another missed deadline is not out of the question, and the market response to attainment of MLs is equally unpredictable, and I know it's not what everyone wants to hear or would agree with, but the current global climate is without doubt one that is highly unpredictable right now and i am thinking that "you either take what you can get and be happy with it, or else you risk waiting a very very long time for what it might really be worth".
of course, waiting a long time is nothing new to Alara holders, and for that reason i sincerely hope that the market is kind to the many fantastic people that inhabit this thread, some of the finest characters on Hotcopper imo.
but from where i sit, the sensible thing would be to ignore fundamentals and base your valuations/expectations purely on technicals (which probably give a better idea of "what you can get" vs "what it is worth").
having said that, if the market is kind, and the award of the MLs are treated with the attention they deserve, i think another approach would be to ignore NPVs, which are transient and often ignored by the market, and instead ask "what would the top 20 be wanting to get as their ROI?", because that not only dictates what the price is now, but also what the price will be on advancement of the project (it is pretty clearly a made market with such a tightly held stock).
based on the RI prices, the long term EMAs, and the medium term trading range, an averaged out purchase price of around 1.6-1.8c seems around the right ballpark. and typically, a bulk buyer will be looking at around 100-200% markup for profit taking. so if i was still holding, and good news came out now, i would probably be watching trading activity like a hawk. if i saw undue selling pressure in either the mid 3s or the mid 5s (being optimistic), i wouldn't personally be hanging around to bleed out another few cents based purely on the NPV calculations.
big love to the crew, hope i'm wrong and this thing does an overnight 10c on the release of some leftfield news
but the realist in me says be sensible. the one thing about global market corrections is that things very quickly go from being "apparently underpriced" to "complete bargains below cash backing", and then take a painfully long time to return to underpriced again.
the flurry of cap raises i've noticed across the micro's reminds me of the type of corporate activity that suggests that everyone is expecting things to turn illiquid sooner rather than later.
take care all, speak soon
