Hi 2ic,
Your posts are much appreciated. I have followed your thoughts on BSE extensively.
In terms of the tolling. Would contracts in tolling be an issue if China ultimately buys the finished product?
Would Chinse laws not be for import - process - export style arrangements?
Iron Ore raw export for pellet production in China is the norm. We do however have a small IO producer here in AU who produces pellets for export themselves in TAS.
In terms of validity of this investment, current MC is below cash position to be had in June after CR. This would see most of the project developed sometime in 2025 and ready for export. I do expect the SP to drop to new share issue price of $0.36. MC will still be the same post CR however ~$72M. I agree market is flooded with REE. But at what point does demand take advantage of supply abundance and gear toward low-cost production of electronics for consumers, who uptake/take for granted the abundance for the low price while simultaneously marginal producers mothball operations due to losses and then we have a high demand low supply scenario which sends prices higher? With Nd prices at their recent historic lows, coupled with inflation, I'm wondering if we are at below historic prices at inflation adjusted terms. Pr prices are also at historic averages.
Compared to the majority of REE miners/explorers, HAS seems to be in a good position for actual development and profitability, with a concentrated resource but with small reserves! REE prices are the key. Green movement is still in full swing and government subsidies will likely prop up the marginal producers to an extent which will artificially keep the Nd and Pr prices lower for longer, I think, lol.
We still have time to get in for a good price, I think. REE prices just recently reached 'normal' levels. This could go below 36c, even to 30c, before new shares are issued in June.
Post tax NPV of ~$865M over 17 years = $50M per year. Add 25% discount for safety = $35M per year net
Probable investment payback of 2 years postproduction start on a $70M market cap, even if it becomes 3 years, is it justifiable at these prices to invest?
What similarities do you see here to what BSE did in Kwale.
Regards
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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