Ann: Q3 2023 Business Update to Accompany Quarterly Results, page-139

Thanks @spnc, always good to see what the competition are saying. A few summary points/ thoughts from me:

They think the TAM for prostate imaging is US$1.6b rising to US$3b by 2028. Current total annualised sales for  LNTH and TLX were US$1.2b. Interesting that their predicted TAM is more optimistic than TLX's US$2.3b.

They reported ~US$100m net with ~US$600m in the bank. That's quite a nice result.

I thought the Q&A went fairly easy on them, but it was interesting to see one of the analysts speak of "high single digit growth" (per annum was my reading) and US$940m annualised- which is US$235m/q (compared with the US$215m they reported). At this point they started throwing numbers around like $1.6b and $3b.

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I've included a chart which shows, in dollar terms, the quarterly change in US earnings. Sep-23 is not the first quarter where Illucix increased more than Pylarify, though I'd be interested to know why Pylarify had such a big jump in the Mar-23 quarter compared to Illucix.

But if you take out the first three quarters where only Pylarify was on market, Illucix captured 40% of the increase (Pylarify increased $US122.7m in the time Illucix increased to $US85.2m).

Assuming the other competitors don't capture much, then we can permit ourselves two optimistic predictions.

1) US TAM should reach $1.6b almost certainly, and $2b with a reasonable confidence (given TLX is predicting $2.3b and LNTH $3.0b and the analysts don't seem to be howling them down and telling them they're idiots)
2) TLX can quite reasonably be expected to capture 40% of the increase, which corresponds to an extra $40m/q in the $1.6b case and $80m/q in the $2b case.