Cool, that is quite similar to what I think is the highest...

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Jako8557

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02/05/17

18:56

Post #: 24420144
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Originally posted by meerkat ↑

I totally agree, IMO the Saudi licence prospect is dead.

I believe Alara got too close a few years ago to actually getting its hands on the Knaiguiyah licence. It would not surprise me if Arab interests decided the best way to stop them would be for Menagem to disrupt the JV agreement and launch a phoney damages claim which they knew would take years to get through the BOG (who were directed to ensure there would never be any swift judgement). It's clear that Alara think Menagem's claim to be without foundation.

So continuing with my hypothesis - after a suitable period of time say five years, with the Saudi prince who was on the AUQ board sidelined to another portfolio saying goodbye to Alara, the Arab interests will submit and be granted a new application for the exploration/mining licence. Alara will hence be shut out of any licence to mine, but they still have the DFS for Knaiguiyah so would then negotiate with the new licence holders for a slice of the action in return for handing over the DFS. But instead of a 50% share in Knaiguiyah they'll be lucky to get 5%.

In the meantime, so it doesn't look too bad, the BOG will find against Menagem and might even award AUQ damages to the extent of returning the $3.5m they handed over to Menagem for transfer of the original licence. But that won't worry Menagem - guess who'll turn up on the board of the new Arab company...

that's my conspiracy theory and I'm sticking to it.

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Cool, that is quite similar to what I think is the highest probability, although I feel a new entity would probably just make a lowball offer for the DFS held by Alara, instead of a percentage....or at least before any percentage is offered.
And I think that somehow the BOG will want to find a result where both parties can save face, I don't know how this will be done, but that will be what they are going to be striving for.

cheers

AUQ Price at posting: 1.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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