i'm guessing $197mm in turnover for this year and 8% ebitda margin for 15.7mm ebitda. could be 15-17mm vs a $59mm loan facility.. gives a debt/ebitda of 3.7x..which is a little high.. i wonder what the covenant is on the loan? i note it is only drawn to $50mm at the moment. but my guess is that they pay BBSW+500 which would be around 8.5% or $4.25mm per year in interest.
So i have trouble seeing these guys generating much positive cashflow, and worry that their leverage ratio is too high.. their q/q growth rate has slowed massively and they have added to their employee expenses..
I really don't know if they can grow fast enough to cover their debt costs, and worry they might have to do a cap raise..
Anyway I was in this thing around 11 cents, when I thought they could grow at 20% but have stopped out now here at 6.. i hate selling on new lows, but its a money management thing.
any thoughts welcome.
TNT Price at posting:
6.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held