Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-36

First 36 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
hagetaka

6,000 Posts.

982

03/02/24

02:00

Post #: 72216461
Share

Originally posted by seenitb4: ↑

It doesn't make any sense to value a cyclical company with operating leverage in ramp-up mode at a static 8x earnings multiple. What rubbish!

Here's a better approach (using my own assumptions), under the current Queensland royalty regime (vote wisely!), in US$:

Today's market cap: $120m.

Stage 1 (module 1 only)
2.75m ROM processed at module 1 of CHPP from Burton pits
40% recovery HCC
30% recovery thermal 5500
US$90/t cash cost (it really shouldn't be more than that)
USD:AUD: 1.50

If HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $130m EBITDA (1.0x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $210 EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)

Stage 2 (fully ramped up)5.5m ROM processed at Burton40% recovery HCC30% recovery thermal 5500US$90/t cash cost

If HCC $280/t and 5500 $90/t = $260m EBITDA (0.5x current market cap)
If HCC $400/t and 5500 $90/t = $420m EBITDA (0.3x current market cap)

Given numbers above, the share price should be 0.15-0.20 short term and could go up to 1.00 once BCB is fully de-risked and ramped up (3-4 years out). Higher prices would help and the structural supply-demand deficit looks very promising. Lower royalties wouldn't hurt, either.

How to get there? 1) Streamline operation (less is more), 2) deleverage, and 3) carefully expand mining activities to fill the CHPP.

Expand

Why use market cap instead of EV?

BCB Price at posting: 6.6¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

SS1

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

LU7

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

RCE

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

LRV

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

There are more pages in this discussion • 24 more messages in this thread...

First 36 Last

Add BCB (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 5.0¢		Change -0.001(1.96%)		Mkt cap ! $142.4M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
5.0¢	5.1¢	4.8¢	$1.129M	22.64M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
17	106165	5.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
5.1¢	34929	4

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
16	105766	0.050
16	432493	0.049
7	1840333	0.048
7	921936	0.047
8	752641	0.046

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.051	34929	4
0.052	238893	8
0.053	511617	3
0.054	170098	3
0.055	285000	1

Last trade - 13.54pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay)

BCB (ASX) Chart

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-36

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Ann: Quarterly Activities/Appendix 5B Cash Flow Report, page-36

Top Stories

Wealth Within weighs in on shock 4% inflation read – and stocks that could survive the gloom

Sun Silver gets that drill to thrill feeling from high grade hits at Maverick Spring

Lithium Universe (ASX:LU7) board visits Quebec to engage key stakeholders

Recce's R327 found effective against E.coli during clinical trial

Larvotto identifies new exploration target at NSW's Hillgrove, boosting shares by nearly 20%

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News