I have reviewed the Barrenjoey report in depth now. It's...

I have reviewed the Barrenjoey report in depth now. It's bollocks. If you managed to buy at the lows of today. congratulations.

Firstly, they have assumed a linear prawn growth CAPEX of $12m p/a until 2030. They have not adjusted at all for the land that has already been procured, nor the potential divestments of some cattle land that was pre purchased. They are assuming the cost of expanding from 10,000t to 20,000t is the same as 0 to 10,000t. That's not true. This is a modular prawn RAS system that gets cheaper with expansion. I've just been on site with some modular aquaculture systems, where in one case they are saying the ongoing maintenance costs for their farms (nor prawn) will be the same as they expand 4x. There are increasing economies of scale that provide operating leverage and increasing returns on invested capital which have not been captured by BJ.

Secondly, they have fundamentally misunderstood and underestimated the prawn market. One would be prudent to look at the market analysis out there including from $SFG in their recent review. SFG had an initial target of 190,000t of prawns per annum for largely export mareket. Their shift from NT to QLD is because of the cost of operations (unit economics), and had NOTHING to do with a lack of export market. Meanwhile, BJ are forecasting 0 exports by 2030. That's just plain ridiculous and a misreading of the Bell Potter report that was put out.

I'm open to DM's on FinTwit to discuss more, but otherwise the BJ report is going into the bin where it belongs. The GS report is not just more bullish, it is of much greater quality in terms of the evidence. GLTAH.