Hola Brab, I heard someone Cguv I think refer to the transaction (selling the chip IP) as a prize..
It is unique in the world & positioned across a multi 100 billion dollar market and growing, but in speculating what the prize is all about we might start by asking prize to whom?
By that I mean who is likely to see it as a prize and want to pay for it... Plus $350-550m is a lot of coin for something that hasn’t turned over $1 of sales rev as you say and at an ebit multiple of 10 as a start point you might assume would require sales of between $3.5 to $5.5B a year with minimal ramp up to justify the price. I’m just guessing here, but you get the picture.
We know WDC has an option to license it if they don’t grab the whole farm so potential seems like it has been accepted by some.. WDC being in the crèche since 2013/14. And their is a theory that somebody was payin all the big bills that princess racked up while in development.. A report posted years ago called out cost of development closer to $100m, not the $12m quoted to reach a similar stage.
There are 16+ years of sub atomic poindexter particle R&D hours that have meticulously gone in to creating a globally unique (1 of a kind presently) and patented, disruptive multi memory chip placement product. Total combined market currently well in excess of $120B per yr & growing, and that's before you start looking at any additional fringe market applications.
A 5% share of the target market, should you gain early penetration, being over 5B revenue from sales justifies top sales incentive whack.. And from what I know a prospective buyer would be valuing up & paying a percentage of expected product sales revenue on a p/a basis.. We ain’t selling fine art or a classic XB 2 Door Hardtop GT351 so it ain’t about preserving the last of its kind.. This is about letting a modern day disruptive tech, like the Lee Enfield Rifle when it succeeded the old musket, change the face of battle forever.
That sort of disruptive advantage can propel an up & comer to the outright market lead in a short timeframe or cement the position of the encumbant for another generation.. Reram has been touted for a while, only now someone one (4DS) has found a way to control the switching resistance (interface) and while using a non filamentary design (Nearly if not all are filamentary I am pretty sure. Or at least those close to certified design and development manufacture are). That's a 10 yr head start almost, so I read.. ?
Nope El chipo will be shipping & storing as many 1’s & 0’s we can squeeze in to its high density, high volume vertical stack, with or without pwr and at nano speed (huge) for generations due to scaleability limitations not yet even identified... You are not buying the company, you are buying the product with all the papers to own and operate as you wish plus the keys to the future development shed should you wish to pimp your ride and add another layer of capacity or accommodate industry needs.
She's worth something to someone that's for sure & a WDC with Sandisk or other heavyweight with existing platform applications could shorten the ramp up time significantly. Or another with the weight of Intel can just force the ramp up on market like they did with 3D Xpoint. And the storyline below indicates just what a new idea or focus can do to a company.. Anyone reckon Intel or Intel might like the thought of locking up a new emerging memory AI that has distinct advantages to all others in this space? $5B almost looks too cheap, don't it? 8tey
NVIDIA Surpasses Intel in Market Cap Sizeby AleksandarK Jul 9th, 2020 15:52 Discuss (136 Comments)
Yesterday after the stock market has closed, NVIDIA has officially reached a bigger market cap compared to Intel. After hours, the price of the NVIDIA (ticker: NVDA) stock is $411.20 with a market cap of 251.31B USD. It marks a historic day for NVIDIA as the company has historically been smaller than Intel (ticker: INTC), with some speculating that Intel could buy NVIDIA in the past while the company was much smaller.
Intel's market cap now stands at 248.15B USD, which is a bit lower than NVIDIA's. However, the market cap is not an indication of everything. NVIDIA's stock is fueled by the hype generated around Machine Learning and AI, while Intel is not relying on any possible bubbles.
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