With all the distinctly strange market activities of recent...

With all the distinctly strange market activities of recent weeks one has to wonder if we are seeing preparations for a takeover offer.

The party would be a large pharmaceutical company and would be buying through multiple (probably offshore) nominees so as to remain anonymous and to avoid any large shareholder obligations of the ASX.

Australian brokers should be able to detect this sort of activity from the settlement profile, as should ASIC (but don't hold your breath there). SPL should also be able to detect this activity through their register.

The sign would be multiple new nominees coming on to their register with holdings growing steadily.

Australian Law requires Federal government approval of an offshore takeover and that is another matter but acquiring up to say 10% of the company at a big discount would be worth heaps. If the takeover was pitched at say $5 acquiring say 10% at around $1.70 would be worth $132M to the buyer.