Interesting theory, but to my mind a load of old tosh.
Firstly, these three original drugs are off patent now, so anyone can come along and make an offer to license them. It is not restricted to just Sanofi and Pfizer (although I am sure they are very interested).
Secondly, if a company does take out a license for DEP and they get FDA approval (and why wouldn't they since the base drugs are already approved) I would assume they will have a monopoly because the FDA would not allow the original drug to be marketed any more. The safety profile of DEP is too good to ignore. Remember that two of drugs currently have black box designation.
Thirdly, any potential licensee will be looking seriously at the data. The more (good) data there is then the more valuable the drug is. And in fact potential licensee’s may be dictating to Starpharma what they want to see in the data before they take in on board.
Forthly, as JF intimated, some drugs may be able to avoid a phase 3 trial altogether. To achieve that I would assume that the phase 2 data needs to be comprehensive and clear.
And finally, as an aside, if anyone thinks that the current SP reflects in any way the potential value of this company you are only fooling yourselves. The SP is dictated by the market honchos with the big braces and balls to match. They push it down when it suits, and they pull it up when it suits. Unless a big announcement comes along, of course. Currently they are pushing it down until your eyes water, and then pushing it down more. At some point in time they will start buying back those shares cheap and you will be selling cheap just to get rid of them. I read recently that institutions usually hold about 75% of a company’s stock. Last time I looked, they only held about 55% of Starpharma. That's 20% up for grabs, if they squeeze the retail holders hard enough.
AIMO
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