They’ve issued 384.6M shares at $0.013, a 23.5% discount to the $0.017 close (May 7), with 3 free options per 4 shares ($0.0195 exercise, 2-year expiry) pending a June GM vote. Strong demand from new instos, but it’s a dilution hit – total shares jump to 3.8B+ now. Settlement’s May 19, shares hit the board May 20. Bell Potter and Canaccord bagged a 6% fee plus 5M broker options.
The good news? Funds are for GWP early works, plant design, and HPA Scoping Study – straight into that June ’25 FID push. Ties in nice with the March $75M debt talks with Merricks, so maybe this is a bridge while they sort that out. HPA’s still hot, and the options could juice things if the SP climbs past $0.0195 (another $5.6M if exercised).SP-wise, the discount and dilution might sting – could drop 10–30% from 2–3c to 1.4–2c short-term as punters freak. But if this fuels an offtake deal (still buzzing on X and here), we could bounce hard. I’m eyeing 3–5c if FID news or an offtake lands soon – think Jiangsu (+20%) or Plantan (+10%) vibes.
A big offtake with prepayments? 6–9c’s back on the table, maybe 10c if HotCopper FOMO kicks in like May 1’s pump (0.5c to 2.6c!). Moonshot, sure, but not impossible.Risks? Debt repayment’s looming, and production’s still a year off. If the Merricks deal flops or no offtake shows, we might stall at 2c. Market’s twitchy with tariff crap too. Still, HPA demand’s solid, and this cash keeps us moving.
These are just my thoughts. Not saying any of this will happen but it’s possible. DYOR!
ADN Price at posting:
1.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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