I think you have been over thinking the situation.
RG is trying to close it out quickly purely because it is the simplest position rather than dealing the longer term game and staying listed.
The $160m is irrelevant, it purely reduces the debt, but keep in mind it also gives away 50% of the profit of the pooling business.
If RG is not willing to increase the bid, and I myself wouldn't because he is so close to the 90% mark, why hand out a heap of cash to the majority of shareholders that have already capitulated? just doesn't make sense!
Now, there are two main scenarios. 1. He gets to the 90% by close of the deal, in that case the fat lady has sung! 2. he doesn't reach the 90%.
The second scenario is where this will most likely play out.
What has driven up the SP of late? Could it be speculators borrowing stock in the hope that RG will make an increased bid? if this is the case and he doesn't they need to sell out their positions to cut the losses which may drive the price below the $0.84. It is a possibility but I am not sure.
If it does get to the 90% and RG lets the offer expire I suspect that the buying will disappear which may reduce the SP. There is a period after which a new offer can be made and this is the most likely scenario. At this stage he will only have to pay a handful of shareholders a higher price. the challenge is what the price would be to get the other 5% that he needs to take it private.
So my belief is that RG will get PACT, possibly not now with 90% but it will happen, how long I don't know.
Time will tell.
PGH Price at posting:
86.5¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
(20min delay)
