My guess is the price sensitive nature is because they are...

My guess is the price sensitive nature is because they are flagging material cost pressures due to feed, labour, materials, etc; and because they have updated the fish pool data. However, overall this is pretty consistent with previous announcements.

The 1H22 results we already knew. EBITDA and FCF were both looking good, while most of the inventory was sold off at relatively modest export prices in hindsight. The main things for me is that there is a change in the sales mix which helps Tassal benefit from higher global spot prices (i.e. more wholesale and exporting), hopefully which will offset the higher input prices and keep margins stable. This year may be a bit tricky to navigate.

With regards to the 40k tonne target in FY2030, I am pretty sure this is pre-SmartFarm. So it could be that they can improve smolt size, improve efficiency of grow-out periods, etc and improve the overall tonnage to 45ktonne. This is a bull case, whereas 40ktonne is a base case for me.

Prawns seem to be going well. They maintain that they are expecting prawns to contribute equivalent amounts of operating profit in 2030 to salmon is. If that is the case, which I think is very likely, then my conservative estimates are ~$270m operating EBITDA / ~$200m EBIT / ~$170m FCF in FY2030. This is excluding seaweed, which clearly is the third pillar now.