It is commonly stated that AJL has been less than tranparent in...

It is commonly stated that AJL has been less than tranparent in its business activities. However, despite management issues and plain bad luck with the "big wet" in Queensland, Campbell is a good asset trader. The timing on asset sales in NSW and QLD could not have been better, especially in light of the proposed resource tax. There is no reason that East Texas and Cuadrilla, where the company has invested a combined $150 million, will not achieve significant returns.

So, at book ($150 million) and a 3x EBITDA (low) on next year's earnings (see recent note by JPM) the shares are worth a minimum of $5.00.

With the large overseas seller this week appearing to be out and the stock friendless (see recent rants on this forum) then timing might be right to put a toe in the water. Historically, the $2.20 level is good support. Who ould have thought it would be back here after reaching $7.00 in Sep 2008 and again $5.50 in Sep 2009 in the post GFT markets.

I'm prepared to have a go - Good Luck.