You've made a lot of points at times I can largely agree with, but not so some of your above comments. As others (and me for that matter too) have expressed, I think the interruption to "upward transmission" as a result of this CR will likely be much briefer than the last time. And if the stat. that only one third of the allocation went to soph's is accurate, then I think we could anticipate less of a sell off in the short term. I would expect many more now would have eyes on the prize i.e. reserves figures, giving rise to a much healthier share price and level of overall interest in the company.... I think you are way too pessimistic in your projections. The fact the share price was making some good ground recently I thinks help support the view your previous expectations were also a little too low. Sure there may have been some "help along the way", but when isn't there help along the way???
Yes, tomorrow upon listing there will be some selling, but watch for a fast recovery in my book. I agree the 10.5c was a gift, but in truth 15c is a gift!! There will be selling but selling looking to buy back in very quickly soon after I expect. This in addition to new buyers as well just getting the story.
As for how big the reserves number has to be to excite the market, the numbers do not need to be large. As SB points out, "the knowledgeable" understand that first reserves are a pointer to larger reserves around the corner (my words) so in effect any reserves are goodreserves.... COI started with 2P of 30PJ and 3P of 219PJ in Nov '15 and clocked up a MC of $155mil thank you very much. The market will more than likely be happy with anything "bankable" in my opinion. Because they'll know the next 6 wells will make it even more bankable!!
