I think you completely missed the point. DAYBUE is not the key...

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ashgood123

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26/05/24

12:42

Post #: 74012505
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Originally posted by ajk92: ↑

I think a lot of posters need to dial back their expectations of where the share price is going to land after this Phase 2 and the subsequent one. Yes, the results will likely be very strong, but you cannot lose sight that its going to be for around 20 patients in each trial. This is not a big number of patients, and the trials are not randomized, which will always be the money maker.

Assigning a high probability of approval for any indication off the Phase 2 data is unwise in my opinion. People may believe that 2591 will get approved for sure based off a Phase 2, and it may well do so, but when it comes to the market and those who essentially decide on fair value is, they won't be assigning a high prob of approval. I do not expect anyone to begin building in billions of dollars of valuations into the share price based of 2591 data. If a company was listed on the ASX with only 2591 as its pipeline, where would the market cap be? Given the way the Australian market values biotechs, I can't see it being much more than a couple of hundred million.

The main driver of the share price for the forseeable future will be Daybue sales, and primarily the sales in the USA even when it begins to get approved around the world. USA pricing will always result in the US sale being the dictator of the share price. Therefore, if the Daybue sales begin to not meet expectations, there will be significant periods where the share price goes through downswings. The market will always react more strongly to weaker news than equivalent strong news.

I am long on NEU but I try to remain objective, which some people fail to do because of confirmation bias and getting emotionally attached to a stock. Its a business, nothing else to me.

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I think you completely missed the point. DAYBUE is not the key value driver for NEU SP at this moment. This is not my words but from all the analysts covering NEU. While PMS sample size was small, the result was overwhelmingly positive and was not by chance.

The significance of the Pit Hopkins and Angelman results is that it adds further weight to the investment theory that NNZ2561 has the potential to treat many other neurological illnesses

NEU Price at posting: $20.71 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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I think you completely missed the point. DAYBUE is not the key...

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I think you completely missed the point. DAYBUE is not the key...

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