I love what Bega is trying to do. I live in the old Warnambool Cheese and Butter district now owned by Canadian Saputo.
Wouldn't it be fantastic of there was an Australian version of Nestlé or Kraft we could invest our super into? Isn't it great to have a parochial Aussie brand company? But I choose to invest on future implied returns.
With Bega, I struggle to find the value. I see the ROIC as quite low, and thus future organic earning growth is pretty low. Margins continue to be compressed via competition. Not sure if there is a catalyst for change - what's the thesis?
Valuation isn't enough to get me in yet - still 12x EV/EBITDA. Lots of debt, so I prefer that than market cap or price to earnings. And while the recent acquisition is a good strategic move, the accretive earnings were diluted away with the cap raise.
Watching closely on the sidelines.
p.s. great quality discussion on this forum.
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