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07/02/22
11:33
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Originally posted by Teddyward
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I think a lot of spec biotech inexperienced investors see the couple of headlines of the sucessful aussie biotechs and think it is overnight sucess.
They also see large takeover offers and think it happens all the time
They see a upfront and think one will come every 3 months and market gets all excited not realising that it is just a step on the way and it takes a long time
Then you have income from actual product- big pharma pays eventually but generally not until all the shared costs are taken out of initial margin for promotion, introduction etc. Yep it is geared against teh little pharma as big pharma owns the production facility and bills it out at a high price and also all their internal costs are loaded in.
So yes there is huge margins but they start as a drip a lot later than people expect but with patent and product protection the real $ for single comes a few years later. Hopefully with a platform there are shortcuts to the next product but there is still a long process.
Sometimes a biotech gets lucky and has a blockbuster that multiple companies want and they get taken out ata premium upfront and that is what makes the news headlines and attracts peopel to small biotech but honestly it is rare and is usually years of slow drudgery and even after sucess and a initial market recognoition a long wait till income starts to justift teh market cap.
All the conspiracy theory on forums IMO comes from the inexperience and timelines but also not understanding the reality that possibly 1 in 300 companies actually gets a viable product and then there is further odds on just how viable it is. Frustration with the process and poor communication from the company involved just adds fuel to the conspiracy fire and other posters talking up and probably trading " news" or coincidences they find is just a tool they use to get some trading income while staying part invested in a small biotech. IMO 90% of rises in proices in biotech are not sustained so you can see why rises are sold into and also why people short rises- The odds say it will profitable to do it on average.
I hope SPL platform DEP is a goer and that something happens that the managenment better communicate timelines of progress etc to market so it stops the traders havig such a field day with share price and peoples emotions . I am not seeing that improvement yet unfortunately. I am dismayed at BV and its lack of presence in the market nor promotion so I guess the partners selected are not correct or the product isn't as good as initially thought. I expected more. Viraleze- I am still on the fence ( lacking data) as have not been impressed to date bwith distribution and partners as SPL just don't seem quick enough nor committed enough to get it out there and moving out of wharehouse. I hope it hasn't been to greater distraction to DEP.
One thing with biotech unless you come with technical knowledge there will always be a large group of investors out there who are way ahead of you in knowledge about what is happeing in the real world with treatments and technology related to them via industry journals , junkets etc etc . That is where forums may give you access to some of that knowledge but it is hard to pick the correct information unless you put the time in and stop your own bias and emotional connection to stock ownership taking over reality.
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Starpharma has two products in the marketplace based on its spherical dendrimer astodrimer sodium (one for BV and the other Viraleze). As far as I can tell the marketing and advertising budget for these products does not exist. There were obligations in the Lloyds contract but none I can detect for any Mundipharma or Aspen contracts. Aspen has placed paid advertisements in professional magazines but nothing aimed at end users.
The company has not even been able to correct misinformation on publicly funded health websites like the Better Health Channel which state that the treatment for BV is prescription antibiotics like metronidazole (flagyl) and make no mention of astodrimer sodium even though it has TGA approval for this purpose. Given the high incidence of BV, in the community I find this amazing!
I would much appreciate your obvious experience in commenting on this lack.