If you look at the chart underneath, you will see that it is not a “straight line”. There has been a marked increase over the early (flat) ramp up phase.
Current sign ups are valued at 50% of what is reflected in FB analytics. Typically $600-800 * 50% = $300-400. (ie what was announced). You should look at the last seven days on the chart to get a feel. The calculation you've done takes in the ramp up phase.
At the current rates, using the figures as above, “total campaign spend” return including the flat ramp up phase is likely to tip positive within a week.
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