It was the intelligent investors "buy" rating on ROC that made...

It was the intelligent investors "buy" rating on ROC that made me rethink my own analysis. In spite of their recommendation, I decided to buy anyway (D'oh!!!).

Their credibility was shot for me when they had Millers Retail (MRL, now SFH) as their only "Strong Buy" at one point. They were raving on how this was only the second time "ever" they had a "strong buy" on a stock. Made you sound like an idiot if you didn't invest your life savings there.

Well, I got suckered in, and lost 60%+ of my investment. Several years later, SFH is still in the doghouse.

Since then, I no longer pay any attention to any "experts" or "analysts" or "investment newsletters". Everybody makes mistakes, but if the so-called experts can be that badly wrong, one is clearly better off with a dartboard.


On ROC - I think this year they might report a profit. You need to look at the underlying profit, i.e. operating profit with these guys, because the net is distorting by the very odd accounting treatment of their hedging position.

I've also seen some contradictory statements about their hedging positions, so I'm not sure where that is at, currently. Last year, they took a big hit due to the "mark to market" of the hedge, with the rising oil price. In my book that means they should be getting a big profit contribution this year because the POO has dropped.

While they do have some production assets, I believe ROC is fundamentally an exploration play. If they find a decent sized field, it will pay dividends. If their exploration activities continue to produce dusters, then don't expect the SP to go anywhere.