@Shaq_01, re Post on Assays Result in 5N HPA, page-2: How much revenue can we conservatively expect from our 5N sales ?
In Post #: 72440200 a conservative estimate with 50% of product being 5N being produced out of the total 4,000tpa & sold at a slight premium of $10K/t rather than a blue sky $25K/t would mean an extra A$20M in revenue, which would make a total of A$120M/year for HPA at the 4,000tpa rate.
Like many things QPM, there's an intriguing Q or two, with plenty of upside potential: Q. If HPA demand follows many estimates [A4N reckon micro LEDS will double the LED market] then why not build the same unit in Stage 2 and pull in another $120M+revenue/year? Q. Now the Feasibility Study has adopted purchased aluminium hydroxide as the base case scenario, how does this affect the byproducts, given we are not pulling this 4,000t of product out of the flow? Q. Are QPM shopping the HPA to our offtakers GM/LGES/POSCO for use in their batteries? Benefits to all parties with less suppliers to qualify and deal with, shipping savings etc.
This rainy afternoon I plugged some numbers into the AFS confobulator, and also checked out AMEC's report on Production Tax Credits, as speculation has it the budget may offer this lifeline for the critical minerals sector. The 10% rate mentioned and AMEX's preferred/realistic PTC structure would mean QPMs OPEX Stage 1 would have everything bar ore supply and transport qualify (515.4-176.5=338.9M), resulting in a tax credit of ~$34M.
This could alleviate the loss of revenue at the low cycle prices we see at present. BTW, my numbers at US$20K nickel and US$30K cobalt still have us cranking out ~AU$350M+ EBITDA (including the little uptick from the extra purity HPA).
Also, and even more importantly, I feel the market has dumbed down the nickel industry to the LME spot price, and doesn't understand the relationship QPM would have with GM/LGES/POSCO, much like the lithium sector's focus on China spot, despite the disconnect with what the Japanese and Koreans are paying for their Li product (it's well above spot).
Our battery players would want to receive qualified, consistent product from trusted suppliers. They wouldn't just pick up a few random bags of sulphate because it is low price, and shovel it into their cell product lines.
QPM and our offtake partners would have a pricing formula that references the LME/similar but reduces volatility and supports both parties. No 'screw you' too high or low, otherwise their cars are too pricey and don't sell / we go into C&M, they shut down their nickel-rich battery lines & don't sell.
(20min delay)