Yea, that price increase and reaction to it is so significant, the whole story about the company is that its 'premium service' is driving growth, and they expect that to continue this year. But it can all come undone if it turns out people who want the premium service dont want to pay enough for it, and the whole growth story starts to carry new risks that need to be priced in.
If they dont hit their targets, they have to choose whether to reduce spending, and risk damaging their premium reputation, or reduce growth expectations, which will pushing out the timeline to profitability, and stretch cashflows.
Institutional investors will be the ones that might dictate the price on day1, most of the shares where already sold, the shares available now arent that many, and customer have their chance to buy already, so they likely wont be stepping in again on day1.
So day one you have three quarters of the stock (i think) held by early investors who havent had the chance to sell on the open market and will likely want to unload some, balanced against likely a few instos wanting to taking a significant/strategic shareholding.
To be honest i think it will be a takeover target, i dont think it will be listed in a couple of years, the only question is who will buy it (SLC, UWL, AGL?) and what price.
It is tempting to go for a stag-profit on day1, but i think im like you, try and avoid the gamble.
