I agree with you that BPT is undervalued right now but not by as...

I agree with you that BPT is undervalued right now but not by as much as you think.

To achieve your @$2B EBITDA by FY25 production needs to increase to 24.5MMboe, the gas price would need to increase to $18 JG.
I think the production volume is possible if the company finally gets its act together and I know they have previously forecast higher than that but I don't believe they will be able to sustain volumes any higher than 24.5MMboe pa.
By FY25 I have oil production dropping to only 12% of full year volume as existing oil wells continue to decline and no significant new oil wells come online.

The other bit you have excluded is they still have $1.7B of liabilities on the balance sheet as at 31st December 2022 and you have ignored these in your logic.
$890M of these liabilities are provisions and at some point these costs will eventually start kicking in as can be seen by COE who are now incurring these abandonment costs.

So if you look at the December balance sheet they have around $0.6B in current assets but $1.7B in total liabilities.
They also have $4.8B in non current assets which will continue to decline if annual production outstrips replacement reserves.

Also if they did manage to achieve a $2B EBITDA you still have to take into account the tax liability, the ongoing capex spend and the capex development spent they will need to incur to maintain/further develop reserves.

Personally I think BPT is currently worth around $1.80 if they get their act together.