Bottom of the Barrel Valuation, page-93

guys
I am been thinking long and hard whether to post any opinions as I know it’s a time of heightened stress but I notice some are claiming the SP has managed down for a takeover . I wanted to post some thoughts for those who are open to consider

1. don’t fall into anchoring bias - that if the price was 45 and now is 22 it must be cheap . The last two results have gutted the valuation on both a resource potential reserve point of view.
2. this program would have used a bit of cash so cash levels which some are quoting would be less
3 any future programs / growth will likely be funded by a weaker SP which will be dilutive
4 STX actual reserves are largely locked in with Wesfarmers at lower prices so comparisons to WGO takeover paid per PJ should be assessed carefully
5 the margin loan and the last sale or 2.1 m shares means SN has halved is position - could the margin loan have been a way to sell out in a less obvious manner ?

without doubt - significant value has been stripped from STX. Not sayings it’s worth less or more than todays price - but it is possible todays price is closer to fair value than many may believe

gas shortages are everywhere and a lot more severe on the east coast - have a look at Comet ridge - it’s reserves , the east coast gas price , it’s JV partner to assess how the market may value something worth much more much less in short term.

important to be able to adjust your views with news flow

I only add this because one of the major downfalls of this thread ( always was the case. ) too many cheerleaders and not enough detractors and the ones that did ( myself included a couple of year back ) are attacked and ridiculed

it may well indeed go up , it may be taken over , but it may be value now - assess on current reality - a task each person should do individually