Many thanks, RD.
ANALYSIS
The purpose of this analysis is to see what, if any, insights can be inferred from the broker data during the recent price upthrust. Put another way: to see if we can infer anything about the
buyers during this short-lived mad upward price scramble.
First up, a table; because no self-respecting analysis is complete without one! (lol):
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
| 1 |
% of ASX Turnover (Buy & Sell) |
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
Broker[/B] |
03/06/16 |
06/06/16 |
07/06/16 |
03/06 to 09/06 |
| 3 |
Ausiex |
10.42% |
14.09% |
8.97% |
8.69% |
| 4 |
CMC Markets |
3.39% |
8.63% |
7.77% |
6.38% |
| 5 |
CommSec |
36.15% |
40.17% |
34.51% |
37.83% |
| 6 |
E*Trade |
6.96% |
8.59% |
8.72% |
9.75% |
| 7 |
OpenMarkets |
8.95% |
7.59% |
14.12% |
11.39% |
| 8 |
Wealthub (nab) |
4.80% |
5.83% |
4.59% |
3.72% |
| 9 |
Total |
70.67% |
84.90% |
78.68% |
77.76% |
I compiled some summary information, from the various broker data tables RD provided over this past week, which tracks those brokers trading the largest volumes during the main price upthrust (from Fri 3 June to Thurs 9 June). I chose to end on 9 June because on that day price attempted to retest the 7 June spike top. Price gapped up substantially at the open, only to fail the retest and begin this current downward retracement/correction.
What does this table tell us? The retail brokers led the volume charge. These percentages track both the buy
and sell side volume. Retail brokers are usually used by, um, er, ... retail clients. I am not omniscient, so I cannot guarantee that
only The Great Unwashed ("TGU") - that's us, in case you were wondering - were using their services. There's nothing to stop instos and hedgies from also having accounts. However, in the absence of any evidence to the contrary, the usual suspects in my mind would have to be TGU.
From Fri 3 June to Thur 9 June, inclusive, the total Buy Volume (approx. half of Total Volume) was 78.62M shares for a VWAP of 8.82c. The total dollar value of shares traded on the ASX for POS during this period was ~$6.93M. Yes, only $6.93M.
I know others might have a different view, but for me this excited state of affairs was squarely driven by the current Li
hysteria sentiment (a purely subjective viewpoint).
Equities trading on the ASX occurs on a matched basis (i.e. for every transaction, there is buyer matched to a seller). What the table above doesn't tell us is the balance shift, if any, of shareholders between brokers (&/or clients) during this period.
The largest
net increases in shareholdings (i.e.
+ve Net Volume - investors loading up) over this five-trading-day period are easily seen in RD's table, summarized herewith:
- CommSec (up 7.845M shares). Retail.
- Ausiex (up 3.83M shares). Retail.
- UBS (up 964k shares). Major.
- E*Trade (up 936k shares). Retail.
- Third Party Platform P/L (up 925k shares). Never heard of them.
- Euroz (up 485k shares).
The largest
net decreases in shareholdings (i.e.
-ve Net Volume - investors selling out) were:
- Petra Capital (down 4.57M shares). **BING**
- OpenMarkets (down 3.4M shares). Retail(?)
- Timber Hill (down 1.79M shares). **BING**
- Instinet Aust (down 1.09M shares). Unfamiliar with them.
- Morgan Stanley (down 930k shares). Major.
- Bell Potter (down 740k shares). No introduction required.
- Pattersons (down 559k shares). No introduction required.
- Wealthub (nab) (down 545k shares).
So what do I make of all this? Well, there was quite a lot of volume churn throughout this period, but looking at the Net Volumes, it seems pretty darn obvious to me that the so-called "smart money" was selling to TGU during this price upthrust.
I try to be objective about these things, but there is always the risk of confirmation bias. I have tried to present this (albeit simplistic) analysis coherently and transparently, such that anyone can follow it and verify. Hopefully it comes across as intended.
It will be interesting to see what, if any, insights can be gleaned from the current downward price action, when it eventually finds it's next floor and the volumes ease off.
(20min delay)