Broker price target upgrades, updates & trans-mission probable

Hi All

DYOR. This is not investment advice and the following may be based on outdated information.

• Morgan’s have increased their Genex base case price target to $0.37 and bull case to $0.57 valuing GNX between $284m - $1.5 bn depending on the commercial arrangements and realisation of K2H, K2S, and K2W. The $1.5 bn EV estimation assumes full dilution out to 1.1 bn shares and equity + debt. The above assumes no further projects, which of course is unlikely, and the team has stated intent to continue adding to the portfolio once Jemalong is generating and K2H reaches financial close.
• Jemalong is currently on-track/under budget. Expect the majority of our available cash at end of quarter ~(20m) to be available to throw at either K2H or a HC shareholder function.
• Looking at a $20m-$40m developer margin for K2H
• JPOWER remain favourites to win the JV tender. However, as you can see from the IFN bids, there exists plenty of interest in Australian renewable portfolios. Strong third-party interest means this one is highly competitive. I’m favourable to the existing MoU with JPOWER, however, should we hit fin close it’s a great deal for them.
• My recent CAPEX prediction eventuated as (suspiciously) centimetre perfect. The refurbishment will be there or thereabouts, depending on the nature of the overhaul, however, this could vary significantly if we increase the storage capacity
• We will likely accelerate debt repayments in the first ten years to reduce NAIF’s exposure should EA not exercise their ESSA options.
• Best for last. The transmission funding issues we’ve experienced are less about the commitment for the $132m and more to do with access fees and responsibility for O&M. As more projects are unlocked this responsibility will be shared as intended. I considered the finalising of this agreement as a minor risk, until yesterday. If you’re looking for a publicly available comment see below from local Labor MP Aaron Harbor. They're "all in".
  

Happy Wednesday.

Regards,

Jeremy