BROKER REPORT

https://www.andromet.com.au/assets/ADN-Big-Step-Towards-Funding-MST-Access-8-Apr-25.pdf

This report is on the ADN website and came out today and I recommend people to read it and pass around to other shareholders and potential investors.

This is the valuation summary:
Our analysis suggests strong upside We evaluate 3 valuation scenarios

Base case: A$0.14/share – unrisked NPV incorporating Stages 1A, 1B and 2, funded by A$75m debt, and the remainder in equity (we have assumed A$20M)

Alternative scenario 1: A$0.06/share – unrisked NPV assuming just Stage 1A goes ahead, funded by A$75m debt, and the remainder in equity (we have assumed A$20M raised)

Alternative scenario 2: A$0.15/share – unrisked NPV incorporating Stages 1A, 1B and 2, funded 75m debt and the remainder by selling down 20% of the project to a strategic investor (at 30% of our NPV or A$41m) with no further equity raising required.

Our base-case NPV for ADN is A$0.14 per share, fully diluted for remaining equity finance requirements to fund capital expenditure for the project. Our valuation indicates significant upside compared to the current share price.

Risk/reward significantly skewed to reward Our valuation assumes a 100% probability of the GWP going ahead, given its advanced stage and the level of binding offtake agreements. We view this as a binary outcome – either the project will proceed and the company is worth significantly above its current share price or it won't proceed. At a current share price of A$0.007ps, the risk/reward is skewed heavily to the reward side. The market is assigning a very small probability to the outcome of the project proceeding. If we keep all other assumptions constant and just change our risk assessment for the project, the market is currently attributing a ~7% probability to the project (in its entirety) proceeding.

We consider an alternative valuation below where we assume just Stage 1A+ proceeds and no further expansions, and under that scenario, we value ADN at A$0.06 per share. Under this scenario, the market is attributing a ~13% probability to the scenario that just Stage 1A+ proceeds. Base-case valuation We assume debt of A$75m and assume that $20M equity is raised at A$0.012, as we consider any development towards debt funding will see the share price increase. We also believe that a cornerstone investor may well pay a premium to take a significant share of the company. Based on our current assessment of the fundamental value of GWP, we believe that ADN shares continue to trade at a significant discount to fair value.

I agree way undervalued and the probability is much higher than 7% and more like 70% to go ahead.
I agree with the broker report and valuation can be anywhere from
Base: Stage 1A $20M raised at 1.2C is not unreasonable and we are going mining with a 6c valuation.
Possible: Stage 1A 1B and 2 $20M raised at 1.2C is not unreasonable and we are going mining with a 14c valuation.
Possible; Selling 20% of the project for $41M to a strategic investor at 30% of NPV and we are going mining with a 15c valuation.

I seen this funding announcement as a massive increase to the probability of mining going ahead. It hasn't been factored in and I took the opportunity to top up with more shares DYOR!!!!!