well, the Qs you have asked are quite relevant for a newbie investor...so am happy to share my opinion n research freely...I would caution you though for Monday's expectation.....I doubt very much you are going to see the AT1 CEO, in the middle of his annual results presentation, give a 3hr lecture to cover your basic research Qs below.
Really, he is expecting us investors to understand at minimum what he is making n selling..before buying his company shares..many of your Qs fall in this category..but I got nothing to do this evening, so lemme take a shot...
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You seem pretty clued on FinFree101?I certainly hope so, I obsessively research every investment I make on ASX...I monitor everything & research everything I can about a company......this is my sole income stream and I treat it like a job!How are you assessing the following?Whilst they (AT1) are ramping up production of covid POC, have they actually got customers to take up the additional volume? Sounds like you haven't really checked out AT1 or the CEO updates properly. They have signed up 2 best-in-class global partners (Access Bio + NG Biotech). Together with Atomo itself, they have divided up all the geos to sell to (since Access Bio and NG Biotech make their own Covid19 test strips, already EU, USA etc health body approved RDT). AT1 CEO specifically has said that they don't need any more Covid19 partners..got plenty on the burn already in making enough product for these 2, for the whole global market out there.
AT1 CEO has also confirmed they are keeping their regular bread n butter agreements fully supplied...Mylan etc..for HIV, malaria, other OEM device deals done in last 10years...that's almost 250k devices per month run rate proven...and more expected to grow in these areas alone (actually the original reason for IPO listing...to raise funds since these markets alone are billions of $ potential..all in the original IPO presentation if you like..)Who is their Target Market?Well, everywhere but specifically governments (research NG Biotech ann for France as example), hospitals, nursing homes, aged care, mass government population testing...pretty much the same really as every antibody test...but do you know about the secret AT1 sauce that truly makes it different, unique and is patented already in almost all regions? If you don't...well, therein lies one reason for skepticism..Who is their customer base?
See above for Covid19 + also see their original distributors before IPO who need more and more production for future growth too. AT1 has always looked to broader horizons, Covid19 is a fund, sales and market exposure booster..but not the end goal here! Their ASX listing wasn't even planned due to Covid19...they were already well known for HIV, malaria test kits etc....several infectious diseases that need a unique RDT, they already have a partner or angle in development. Do you know how their funding/company was started...which brings one back to the secret AT1 sauce and history to research still....
Whose demanding the product?Government?Doctors?Or the Rank and File like me and you at home?this depends entirely on governments & health body approvals. eg: even if I wanted to buy a home test, I can't today.....TGA hasn't approved it nor has US FDA and many other nations.
EU CDC has approved commercial purchases of antibody tests (ie: NG Biotech's local region) because their stage of epidemics is different across all their countries. In the end, the same people who are buying every test being made - good or bad, 80% or 100% effective - that's all the target market.
Currently all the big test purchases are government based. The future here is also office based solutions, travel companies, cruis ships etc...but again whole country solns will drive what is allowed to be sold/taken up/results tabulated etc... And again, don't forget all the non-Covid19 world that AT1 was originally gearing up for...not at the same pandemic scale but still markets expected to grow exponentially..
Are covid-19 antibody tests actually effective? They are fast, but are they effective? Well, if you gonna ask this type of Q...then I have to wonder what are you are even doing looking at a RDT device company that is ramping up triple production during a pandemic for antibody testing.
I recommend doing antibody topic research (+ antigen, PCR, convalescent plasma, post-vaccine efficacy testing etc..all different types of tests/control measures necessary to control different stages of pandemics....thousands of pages out there already on this stuff in many languages).
Short answer..yeah they are effective..for testing specific stage of infection..the antibody research will tell you what and why. Add that to AT1 secret sauce and plans...
Are they actually going to be able to disrupt testing procedures already in place and well imbedded in many countries (including Australia)? No..because its not about disruption at all. You are looking at this from eg: BNPL or Cochlear type angle. That's not what Covid19 testing is about at all. See above answers...differences between Antigen-Antibody-PCR test types + post-vaccine antibody test needs. Also other HC folks and myself have posted stuff about this already....its all out there on HC...
Why would an end consumer buy a POC Testing kit for home when they can drive down to a government provided drive through testing facility and get tested for free? This is same Q as above...market disruption is not the goal at all. Market share + significant cost & ease of use, risk mgmt etc all make the difference of AT1 vs all competitors..back to the secret sauce and antibody efficacy research
This is a fast, fast moving dynamic market.Which other companies are also trying to get a foothold? I have put several posts about this stuff + others have.....have you read anything on AT1 threads? I'll be kind though..see one post I sent to Mochy2020 couple days ago.."FIND" non-profit webpage link for your answers..
In term of the monetisation and distribution, how are AT1 placed against its competitors (if any)?See above answer for global distribution+ geo carving already done + AT1's history of being known and well used for other infectious diseases (as the RDT device) + billions being spent on tests everywhere...not even counting retail sale option yet...enough $ for every good test type in the world...expected next 1-2years at least
What happens if someone finds a vaccine in the short term? Assumedly POC needs for Covid die or diminish significantly.Nope, a vaccine doesn't diminish antibody testing at all..it enhances the need for it (whether lab based or RDT). You need to research vaccines and where the world is with different stages.Then also research global production rates for vaccines...then look at distribution rates & related materials for manufacture. Fun fact...did you know that globally, we don't yet make enough glass vials even to transport 1 shot of vaccine for all developed nation populations? Far less for every person on earth. Even if every current vaccine provider were to ignore other vaccine needs completely, they can't make enough in 1yr to supply the world immediately.
Another fun fact, only 6-7 major pharmas have the capacity to manufacture vaccines in millions..and even they can;t guarantee every country supply. All the newbie manufacturers popping up are scaling up factories + competing for the same glass production + supply chain + refrigeration + transportation containers etc etc.
Even if tomorrow we have a vaccine, to reach 90% + distribution will take at least 3-6yrs to reach every human...and many poor countries don't even have refrigeration or electricity. until we get Covid19 in control there...folks can't travel back n forth..without antigen/antibody testing all the time..
Check out polio if you like as a comparison...vaccinations been going for over 30yrs and not yet reached 100% in every country (not counting new babies born hourly)
Btw, you should hear the last At1 investor briefing. The CEO has already answered this Q about 'vaccine kiling his biz'...antibody testing is the only way to check if a vaccine works, continues to work.....plenty of future demands for all kinds of antibody tests (lab, RDT, nasal, blood, serum etc)
Seems they are redirecting some volume away from HIV Self Testing to Covid?Nope where did you get this? AT1 CEO has specifically stated they will continue to supply existing partners (250k devices per mth)...and more to come once they get to 1m/mth production rate. Bread n butter + large future market alone.
Aside from HIV Self Testing and Covid, what other POC markets are they looking at?Can they leverage their unique IP in other POC Markets? Blood coagulation? Blood Glucose? You really gotta read the IPO info, past AT1 history, target markets identified etc...its all there and of course this is a future Q for Monday's meeting. Feel free to ask it
Has the company got any plans to turbocharge growth by acquisition rather than by organic means? Why? The IPO share price has already doubled since listing and they are scaling up production massively ASAP in first year based on expected demands...sounds pretty turbocharged to me!
Does AT1 need to swallow some other diagnostic company to pretend its growing by absorbing those 'new' customers/agreements? This type of M&A stuff has nothing to do with AT1's product, market or potential (pandemic or otherwise). You might be confusing this with BNPL or Amazon or Bunnings.....
In case you haven't formed basic company picture yet,
- AT1 are a new ASX company, debt free, got established IP & global patents, established partners (past + present)
- a unique RDT device which works for any kind of test
- enough cash in the bank ($27m after post-IPO spend)
- already committed money to double mthly production (500k in Aug) and then double again (1m in Jan21). Do you think they might have committed to spending all that heavyweight investor money, if they didn't have a plans to sell 1million devices per month next year?
Btw, I said 'plan to sell' not 'guarantee' above.....whether they will sell all or not..well, that's where tea leaves come in and the ability to see the future for AT1 SP...
