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benlinzm

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17/09/20

21:09

Post #: 47431830
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Originally posted by danhoff: ↑

Let me have another effort at some fundamentals; if my calcs are / seem wrong, then yell at me

In FY20 report we see Covid sales of $3.4 mill with 1.08 mill units
We see HIV sales of $1.2 mill with 226k units
We see OEM sales of $0.8 mill with 266k units

Let me assume covid was all Q4
Let me assume HIV and OEM are spread through the year

To me, then, base case for sales is 4 x $3.4 mill covid + $2 mill HIV/OEM = $15.6 mill
Total units would be 1.08x4 + 500k = about 5 mill or 400k per month manufactured

Now, Atomo have upped their manufacturing capacity, and will (can) average about 800k units per month for this fin year; so... if they manage to sell the max they can manufacture, they will sell 2 times the base case; so max sales could be $15.6 mill sales x 2 = $31 mill sales

So Atomo will have sales in this FY, between $15.6 and $31 mill; at 60% margin, that is operating (gross) profit between $9 and $19 mill.

If in FY21/22 they manage selling full production, I have heard 1.5 mill a month planned, then we have another 80% increase in sales.... below points show the result

To recap (base and max possible $ utilising 100% of manufacturing capacity scheduled)
FY19/20 $5 mill sales for $3 mill gross profit (this was actual for full year ramping up)
FY20/21 base case $15.6 mill sales for gross profit of $9 mill (400k units a month using last q4 'steady' state)
FY20/21 max case $31 mill sales for $19 mill gross profit (800k units a month max manufacture)
FY21/22 $56 mill sales for $33 mill gross profit (1.5 mill units a month max manufacture)

Lord knows what that 'possibility' means re a share price TODAY.... 35 cents... 25 cents... 45 cents...????

The quarterly will help us a lot determine if this fin year is tracking near base case or max case.

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after reading your article , I have decided to keep holding my 1.5m units.thanks mate.

AT1 Price at posting: 35.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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