buyers creeping back..., page-2

t4p,

As usual, the answer is "it all depends" (at least that's the only answer I've ever gotten from a lawyer or an accountant - lol).

A couple of weeks ago, I said that I thought it might drift down to the 22-23c level on the basis of the reality of the P&A announcement(s) and the fact that there was not a lot of additional activity to look forward to in the next month or so. Things weren't quite as gloomy as we all predicted, there is actually commercial levels of gas in Kiwi (apparently), although the failure of Semaphore has had the expected effect.

All those short term announcements that you have flagged (such as reserve upgrades, flow rate upgrades and new wildcat drills) will serve to sustain and maybe even raise the price, but the question is will that be enough to overcome the downward pressure that will result from the "relative" lack of action. I just don't know! It all depends on how the market percieves the value of the announcements.

My belief in this company is strong and a quick scan of my recent posts will show that I feel it is trading at about 65% of its true value. The reality is though, that sometimes these situations can take an exasperatingly long time to correct themselves. We all know its worth a lot more than it's currently being sold for, but until someone is willing to pay that higher price, we're stuck with the current market value.

I also firmly support the strategy you outlined this morning in building your position over time and not necessarily waiting for clear confirmation that the bottom has been reached. I have done this myself (at one stage I offloaded my entire holding of COEO) and now I hold more that I did at the peak, and for a lower average cost. I still have some cash in reserve to buy more if I think it's appropriate. There are very few of us who can consistently pick the lows to buy and the highs to sell (the obvious exception of course is Goblin - what a legend).

My average price is not as low as yours and it's not even the recent low, but I'm happy with it and the strategy has improved my potential gain without increasing my risk. The only risk I took was that I might miss out on a quick gain, but that risk has now passed as I'm basically set again.

By the way, have you considered an exit strategy should the share price fall. Not meaning to pry, but I consider my parcel of COEO to be of reasonably liquid size and feel that should the unthinkable happen and the share price stagnates for the next six months with the oppies approaching expiry and falling in value all the time, I would be able to find a buyer at a reasonable price or put up the cash to exercise the options. I'm not sure that's so easily achieved with more than 3m options.

Cheers

Badfish